Ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement, the world is at a critical juncture in the fight against climate change. The accord set ambitious goals to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. While progress has been made, emissions continue to rise, and significant acceleration is needed to avoid catastrophic outcomes. This assessment examines the current state of the agreement, where the world stands, and what challenges remain.
Global Temperature Trends
Since 1970, every year has surpassed average temperatures compared to the pre-industrial baseline (generally the latter half of the 19th century). In 2015, the average global temperature was 1.1°C above this baseline, rising to approximately 1.3°C today. 2024 broke records as the hottest year ever, briefly exceeding 1.5°C, but the Paris Agreement tracks long-term averages. Projections indicate that 2025 will reach around 1.4°C above the pre-industrial average, making it one of the hottest years on record.
Why this matters: Rising temperatures accelerate extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided is crucial to mitigating these effects.
Projected Warming Scenarios
Before the Paris Agreement, the world was on track for 3.7–4.8°C of warming by 2100. Current commitments under the accord are expected to reduce this to around 2.9°C, with a likely range of 2.3–3.4°C. While an improvement, this still falls short of the 1.5°C target.
“Every ton matters; every tenth of a degree we avoid matters; every year matters.” – Costa Samaras, Carnegie Mellon University
Until global emissions reach net zero, climate outcomes will worsen. A 4°C warming scenario could lead to 118 more extremely hot days in the U.S. by the end of the century, with even more severe impacts in other nations. Reducing emissions to 2.6°C would lower this to 88 days, and limiting warming to 1.3°C would result in just 58 such days.
Intergenerational Climate Impacts
Climate change will disproportionately affect younger generations. Today’s five-year-olds will experience 22% more heat waves than today’s fifteen-year-olds. They will face more than double the heat waves experienced by their thirty-five-year-old parents and over six times as many as their sixty-five-year-old grandparents. The frequency of droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones is also increasing due to climate change.
The Rise of Renewable Energy
One of the key successes of the Paris Agreement era has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy, particularly solar power. Solar facilities are coming online faster than expected in 2015, and advancements in battery technology allow for storage of energy for nighttime use. This marks a significant leap forward in clean energy infrastructure.
However: Progress is still needed in sectors such as transportation, agriculture, industry, and land use to match the gains in renewable energy.
Looking Ahead
The Paris Agreement has set a critical foundation, but sustained effort is required to meet its goals. The world must prioritize rapid emission reductions across all sectors.
“I hope that we can revisit this in 10 years and be able to say that the Paris Agreement started a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. But we need to work for the next 10 years in order to make that happen.” – Costa Samaras
The next decade will determine whether the Paris Agreement can deliver on its promise of a sustainable future. Continued international cooperation, policy changes, and technological innovation are essential to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
